When the Right Read(s)(s)(s) Go Wrong
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Thursday, March 27, 2008
By John Darr
PartTime Poker
Picture a 2-5NL game, no max buy, a semi-gate around the table, 8-10 people always watching, a few have MP3 players, including yours truly. The only players wearing sunglasses and hats are on the low limit games, seriously. Buy-ins at this table are spread between $200 and $4,000. Typical stack comes in at $800. I'm sitting on $3,400. Night's been good.
This boniqua in the ten seat says to me: "Do I have any tells?"
I shoot back: "What makes you think I would know that?"
"Because you're the only one paying attention."
So I laugh, "Yeah, you've got a few."
Last week at Caesars, I played 2-5 NL (no max buy) and my reads were at the highest level of my life. Sure, I still paid people off AND I was wrong a few times AND I bled a couple hundred on wrong calls and bad stabs. That's poker. When I pay someone off or make a bad stab, I remember what led me to think I was ahead or that he was weak and I reinterpret that information. I hope you've been 'swinging' too and I hope you're learning from your mistakes.
So, I'm playing in the biggest poker game in the casino, with a gallery of onlookers, and I'm the only player at a table of ten reading people with serious intent. The pros in that game usually rely on their ability to outplay the amateurs but I make up for my 'amateurness' with my ability to read.
Looking to gain an edge? Be THAT guy.
THAT guy who just folded and still stares at the players in the hand.
THAT guy who gets up and walks to the other side of the table just to get a different view of what's going on and then rushes back to his seat before the next hand is dealt.
THAT guy is scary because he always seems to know where everyone's at.
Most people try to 'read' when they're in a hand, staring down their opponent, slaving to remember the last situation they were in together. What about the last time your opponent was in a hand with ANYONE? How many times has he bought in? What chip tricks does he know and when does he do them. All of this information is out there, use it.
During the course of my 55 hours of NL play that week, I got my money all in a total of five times and I was deadly accurate on where my opponent(s) was/were – all five times. Five times I put more than $1,500 in the pot; five times when we flipped the cards over, I was well ahead; all five times I lost.
All said and done, I ended my poker binge last week $1,200 down but I believe it took one hell of solid play to lose ONLY that amount.
The pots totaled a bit more than $10K, and I don't know how I had the senility to keep getting it all in after suffering those beats – some horrendous, some reasonable. But I kept firing away and I kept trusting my reads, reads which I developed through some simple techniques. If you haven't already, consider reading my intro article on developing reads. I intended the next thing I wrote to pick up where that one left off, but I thought it paramount to share the story of one of my beats to illustrate what I'm looking for when I make my reads, what clues told me their cards, and to demonstrate that winning a hand takes more than a solid read. The next article will be more specific than this one, but here's a shot inside my mind during a hand.
The Sick One
Stakes: 2-5 NL, Full Ring
Participants in hand and their stacks: Tourney ($1,800), Average Joe ($900), Myself ($5,100)
First off, I watch everyone look at their cards before I do. This simple, unoriginal tip often goes ignored, even at this level.
In early position, Tourney makes it $25 to go. He'd already gone to the cage twice to re-buy, $800 each time. On one of his trips away from the table, I asked around and found out that he's a tournament player who just hit big when the series was in town, taking second in a big buy-in. He's young, not that tough an opponent, and plays cash games like tournaments - a big mistake. I'd seen him raise in early position quite a bit and usually fired out quickly when he wasn't that strong. How did I know that? He either showed down or folded to a strong bet on a bad board.
So, with his quickly executed raise, I immediately think Ace Big, maybe a pocket pair but not likely. Average Joe Calls the $25. Joe's an older man, nothing special about his game, pretty even keel. Does NOT like to gamble.
SIDE NOTE: Most old men don't gamble, I don't know why but that's what I've found. I once flopped a made flush against an older man who flopped top set. He bet pot ($15), I went all in for $300 more and he folded, showing the set. "A lot of hands beat me," he said. Back to this old man.
So with Joe's call I think medium pocket pair, probably 8s because there's still a large field behind him to act and he wants to see a flop, not sure if he's ahead of Tourney. He wouldn't call that bet with AQ or worse. If he thought he was ahead, I'm confident he would have re-raised. Since he just called, I knew he wanted to see a flop before committing any more money.
I'm next to act. I look down and see two black Queens, positive I have Joe crushed and am probably ahead of Tourney based on what I've seen from him. I want to take it down now and not risk seeing an ace on the flop. I look down the table and see players behind me doing what they do before they fold, some squeezing their cards, some staring hopelessly at them, others catching football scores on the TVs above. When someone's going to fold, they turn off the 'poker face' and start looking for something to hold their interest until the hand's over. That's a powerful read, knowing when there's weakness behind you, and it's a read opportunity most players don't exploit.
With all the distraction and indifference behind me, I know AA and KK aren't out there and I won't suffer a re-raise. I make it $100 total, confident I'm ahead of everyone. The table folds to Tourney who surprisingly calls. What calls that bet? AK he bets more than $25 early and most likely reraises me here, that's the way I think he thinks. He looks a bit 'ancy,' eyes open a bit wider and they're moving a bit more than normal, jumping around nervous-like and excited. My raise did something and he might be gambling here or eager to steal this big pot. Sometimes, I second guess my read, but it's best to go with the initial reaction, what strikes my mind first, that's usually the right read. His demeanor and my instincts tell me I'm ahead. Then the shocker, Average Joe auto-calls like he'd been priced in for $75 more. Now I'm confident Joe has a pocket pair. I know I'm ahead but I don't really know what kind of flop I want to see.
Flop: Qd 9d 5d
Bingo, top set. Only thing I'm afraid of is AK suited because $100 preflop is a large bet in this game and KJ suited/AX suited folds to that kind of action. As I said earlier, I know Tourney doesn't have the AK. And Tourney checks, Joe checks. I fire out pot-sized bet of $300. I try to know what I'm going to do before it gets to me and act quickly, I don't want to give them time to figure out where I am.
Without blinking an eye, Tourney flat calls, still looking nervous. Bells go off in my head. I immediately think he's got a set of 9s and I'm going to clean his clock, possibly slow playing KK preflop with the King of diamonds but not likely. He had to get a piece of this. Joe folds just as expected.
Turn: 4c
A blank!
Amazingly, Tourney fires out $500. My initial feeling is that his bet is made in haste, compulsive. Holy shiz. It becomes clear. He's got the ace of diamonds, no pair and he's representing, looking to steal a $600 pot. He wants to take it down now or see the river cheap and gain the role of aggressor in the hand. If I'm right I'm a monster favorite and WAY ahead. I go with my read and put him all in for another $900, thinking if I'm wrong, I've got a few outs and he simply can't call without a set or the made flush.
He quickly calls the 9 cold! I must have been wrong!
I ask, "You don't have a flush do you?" expecting to hear a 'yes.'
"Not yet," he said, slamming down Ad Jh on the table, like he'd seen this one before, he just knew it was the nuts. That's tournament players for you. It's not real money, it's just a chance to get a stack and dominate the table.
For some reason, I was ahead but I was still terrified. This kid just put $1,400 in on a one card flush draw ON THE TURN. All in on the flop, Ok, maybe. But the turn? His whole plan was to steal; I knew it preflop and caught him on the turn when he pulled the trigger.
I show my set and the table gets silent. Everyone stands up, a poker phenomenon I don't understand. The gallery around the edges clamor to get to the railing. I hear "what does he have?" "How much is that pot?" "What was he thinking?"
I'm still in shock. I'd busted my a$$ all night to build this stack and I was going to be a big winner or near even. Come on river.
River: Jd
F'n four card flush. During the next hour, Tourney plays the big stack, bullies the table, draws out a few more times and then immediately racks out for $5,500. He was right where I put him the whole time and in retrospect, I could have bet more on the flop, like $600 instead of $300 (cutting his flush draw odds a bit), but an extremely solid poker player and friend told me "you want him to call. That pot bet was just tactics, not bad play."
Fair enough.
So back to that conversation with my boniqua-friend a few hours earlier.
So I laugh, "Yeah, you've got a few."
"Well what are they," he asked?
"I'll tell you one for $100."
"What?"
"That's cheap. It's already cost you at least five times that much."
"Huh, how about $25."
"$50, and if you don't think it's worth that price, keep the cash."
"Deal."
I pull him aside and tell him that when he looks at his cards, if he intends on folding, he won't blink more than once, even if he's in the small blind and has to wait a decent amount of time. He simply will not blink, sometimes he'll shuffle his chips, sometimes he won't, but the key is the blink and when he doesn't, he folds. When he wants to play, he blinks at least twice and watches the other players make their bets, and when he holds a monster he doesn't control his blinking (usually 3 to 5 blinks) and then immediately begins shuffling chips, head down a bit, listening to the bets being made until it's his turn to act.
He peels off a $50 from the roll in his pocket, hands it to me and says "Jesus."
